UN-HABITAT has predicted that half of Africa's population will live in urban areas by 2030. Poor infrastructure, lack of housing and jobs will confine 70% of these people to slums from which they are unlikely to escape. The African cities which are expected to grow the most are Lagos and Kinshasa, whose populations are each expected to top 15 million by 2025.
Much of this involuntary urbanisation will be driven by climate change because of the increased frequency of El Niňo-Southern Ossilation events and the anticipated 2-4°C temperature rise, which will lengthen dry seasons and cause recurrent droughts and crop failures in Africa.
This year's severe drought in East Africa has already forced more than 1.7 million farmers off their lands, with 180, 000 of them migrating to the Dadaab refugee camp, bringing the population of this camp to 468,000 and making it the third largest city in Kenya. These refugees will quickly become dependant on handouts, making their vital farming skills redundant.
If there is a 5°C increase throughout Africa, due to uncontrolled climate change, maize yields are predicted to fall by 20% and bean yields by more than 60%. Crop production will be hopeless where air temperatures exceed 35°C.
Crop | Optimum flowering temperature |
Wheat | 15°C |
Maize | 18-22°C |
Rice | 23-26°C |
Sorghum | 25°C |
USDA SAP 4.4, 2008.
It will be impossible to prevent involuntary migration or sustain Africa's burgeoning urban populations without addressing climate change and its devastating impacts on agriculture.
Let's hope that Brice Lalonde gets his way and agriculture is put firmly on centre stage at the next Rio summit on sustainable development...
